CEA V Anantha Nageswaran Defends India’s GDP Data, Urges Balanced Scrutiny Amid IMF Review

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has strongly defended the credibility of India’s GDP estimates, saying the country’s national accounts are not inferior to those of advanced economies and must not be viewed through a lens of “inherent inferiority”.

His remarks come in the backdrop of the International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Article IV review, which retained a ‘C’ grade for India’s national accounts statistics even as it acknowledged robust growth and ongoing efforts to upgrade macroeconomic data systems.

Calls For Mindset Shift On Data Quality

Nageswaran argued that there is a persistent tendency to question India’s statistical methods only when GDP numbers surprise on the upside, whereas sharp contractions or weaker prints rarely trigger similar scrutiny of methodology.

He stressed that India does not follow some “questionable” estimation practices used by certain developed economies and insisted that criticisms should be “symmetric” and evidence-based rather than driven by preconceived narratives about data quality.

Response To IMF’s ‘C’ Grade For National Accounts

The IMF’s latest assessment graded India’s national accounts, including GDP and GVA, at ‘C’ while assigning an overall median rating of ‘B’ when external and fiscal datasets are taken together.

Nageswaran said the lower grade largely reflects technical issues such as the continued use of the 2011–12 base year, reliance on a single deflator and gaps in reconciling production- and expenditure-side GDP, adding that these shortcomings are already being addressed by the statistics ministry.

Why Government Says Growth Numbers Are Reliable

Defending the recent 8.2 per cent GDP growth print for the July–September quarter, the CEA pointed to strong trends in MSME credit growth, improved disposable incomes from tax relief, supportive interest rates and double-digit non-food credit expansion as underlying drivers.

He argued that any structural data gaps are present across years, meaning that year-on-year growth comparisons remain valid and do not materially distort the direction or strength of India’s economic expansion.

Upgrades To Statistical System In Pipeline

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is working on revising the GDP base year, expanding coverage of the informal sector, and improving the choice of price indices and deflators in line with global best practices.

The IMF staff report notes these ongoing reforms and expects many of the recommended improvements—including better census data, more granular investment statistics and timelier consolidated fiscal accounts—to start reflecting in official numbers from 2026 onwards.

CEA Urges Mature Debate On Data

Nageswaran called on analysts and commentators to engage in a more nuanced debate that recognises both the limitations and strengths of India’s statistical system instead of amplifying doubts whenever growth exceeds expectations.

He maintained that while constructive criticism helps improve data quality, undermining confidence in official statistics without robust evidence can hurt investor sentiment and overshadow the broader story of India’s sustained economic growth.